An unstated underlying assumption is that the Repu...

2011-11-12T08:22:05.043-08:00

An unstated underlying assumption is that the Republicans have control of both houses of Congress, at least between 2013 and 2015. Otherwise, I don't see how some of the items in your scenario could take place.

However, even if the House and Senate *are* controlled by Republicans during at least the initial years of a Republican presidency, I'm not sure that some of these things would occur. Specifically, no politician is going to be willing to alienate a large voter base by eliminating Medicare and Medicaid. Even if a Libertarian were to score a House seat, he/she would not be willing to propose the abolition of Medicare/Medicaid.

For me, the more likely scenario (based upon your underlying assumptions) is that the politicians don't do much of anything regarding the status quo. Civil liberties could certainly erode, since that is hard to perceive for some people (and the Bush-Obama policies have gotten some people used to this), and even some abortion rights could be curtailed or de facto curtailed (half of the population will never get an abortion). But anything that has a big impact on a number of people, such as the elimination of Medicare or social security or a huge tax increase, just isn't going to happen.

This doesn't negate your concluding thesis that many won't perceive the election of 2016 as meaningful. However, some people have believed this since the election of 2004.

Comments on Jeber's: America 2012-2016

An unstated underlying assumption is that the Repu...